Climate change induced elevational range shifts of Himalayan tree species

Abstract Global warming may force montane species to shift upward keep pace with their shifting climate niche. How differences in such distribution shifts depend on elevational positions, elevation‐dependent rates, and other environmental constraints, or plant functional traits is poorly understood. Here, we analyzed for 137 Himalayan tree how vary niche traits. We developed ecological models using MaxEnt by combining survey botanical collections data 19 predictors. Species distributions were projected 1985 2050 conditions, range parameters areas derived. Under the worst‐case RCP 8.5 scenario, are predicted shift, average, 3 m/year optimum elevation, have 33% increase area. Highland showed faster than lowland species. Lowland highland expand area contrast mid‐elevation Tree which driven responses temperature, aridity, soil clay content strongest upslope shifts. conservative trait values that enable them survive resource poor conditions (i.e., narrow conduits) larger wide conduits. The average maximum elevation (8 m/year) >2 times current observations indicating many will not be able track change potentially go extinct, unless they supported active conservation measures, as assisted migration. Nepali available online material